:Product: 0216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Feb 16 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  The visible
solar disk remained spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, due to the
continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream.  Wind speed
at the ACE spacecraft began the period at approximately 650 km/s, by
the end of the summary period it had to declined to around 550 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, as the coronal hole
high speed stream rotates out of a geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Feb 070
Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        16 Feb 075
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/10/10
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01