:Product: 0218RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Feb 18 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  The visible
solar disk remained spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels.  An
isolated active period was observed from 18/0900 - 1200Z due to
sustained southward Bz (-5nT maximum) and elevated solar wind speed.
Beginning at approximately 18/0600Z wind speed began a gradual rise
from around 450 km/s to end the summary period at about 600 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the forecast period
(19 - 21 February).
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Feb 071
Predicted   19 Feb-21 Feb  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        18 Feb 075
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb  008/008-005/005-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/10
Minor storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/05