:Product: 0219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Feb 19 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  The visible
solar disk was spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  Solar wind
speed at the ACE spacecraft reached a maximum of 655 km/s at
approximately 19/0159Z, and Bz ranged between +/- 5nT.  Wind speed
ended the summary period at around 600 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly unsettled levels, with isolated active
periods possible on days one and two (20 - 21 February).  On day
three (22 February) activity levels should decrease to predominately
quiet levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Feb 072
Predicted   20 Feb-22 Feb  072/072/072
90 Day Mean        19 Feb 075
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb  009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  008/008-008/012-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/10
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01