:Product: 0305RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Mar 05 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity continues at very low levels. The
filament eruption observed from near S22W20 at around 04/1200Z had
an associated faint, slow CME observed on coronagraph imagery. The
CME is not expected to be geoeffective. New Region 984 (SO5W69)
emerged today as a small BXO sunspot group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Periods of southward Bz
produced the weak disturbed conditions. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today. The electron flux was elevated above the alert threshold
since 29 Feb, but dropped below the threshold late this period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm conditions over the next
three days. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail on
6 and 7 March. A large, recurring coronal hole high speed stream
will rotate into a geoeffective position on 8 Mar and produce
periods of active to minor storm conditions at all latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Mar 069
Predicted   06 Mar-08 Mar  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        05 Mar 074
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar  005/005-005/005-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/40
Minor storm           01/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/50
Minor storm           05/10/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/15