:Product: 0311RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Mar 11 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 985 (S10W96)
produced a B5/Sf flare at 11/0550Z. Region 985 has since rotated off
the west limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to the
influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind
at the ACE spacecraft was elevated to approximately 640 km/s at
forecast issue time. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active, with isolated minor storm conditions
at high latitudes on day one (12 March). The elevated activity is
due to the coronal hole high speed stream. Days two and three (13-14
March) are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Mar 070
Predicted   12 Mar-14 Mar  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        11 Mar 073
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar  012/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar  010/015-008/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor storm           10/20/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/05