:Product: 0314RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Mar 14 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (15 March) in response to a
slackening of the solar wind indicated by the STEREO Behind
spacecraft.  Quiet to unsettled levels return on days 2 and 3 (16-17
March) as the solar wind speeds approach 600 km/s.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Mar 070
Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        14 Mar 072
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  005/005-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/30
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/40/40
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05