:Product: 0315RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Mar 15 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. New region 986 (S04W41)
was numbered today. It was initially a Bxo Beta magnetic class, but
has since deteriorated to an Alpha magnetic class.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high
levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on days one and two (16-17 March) due
to the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (18 March)
as the effects of the high speed stream subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Mar 070
Predicted   16 Mar-18 Mar  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        15 Mar 072
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  012/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  010/010-010/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05