:Product: 0317RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Mar 17 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  Region 986
(S04W71) has decayed to a single alpha spot.  A slow-moving coronal
mass ejection was observed off the west limb at 17/0830Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels throughout the forecast period
(18 - 20 March).  The CME observed today is not expected to be
geoeffective.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Mar 070
Predicted   18 Mar-20 Mar  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        17 Mar 072
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01