:Product: 0404RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Apr 04 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Spotless plage Region 989
(S11W54) produced isolated B-class subflares. No new regions were
numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class flare
from Region 989.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Field
activity increased to active levels during 04/1800 - 2100Z due to
increased solar wind velocities and IMF magnitude combined with
periods of southward IMF Bz. ACE signatures indicated Earth entered
the co-rotating interaction region between slow and fast solar wind
flows. Velocities increased to 507 km/sec near the close of the
summary period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was high during most of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at active levels during days 1 - 2 (05 - 06 April)
with minor to major storm periods at high latitudes due to coronal
hole effects. Field activity is expected to decrease to unsettled
levels on day 3 (07 April) with active to minor storm periods at
high latitudes as coronal hole effects decrease.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Apr 073
Predicted   05 Apr-07 Apr  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        04 Apr 073
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr  015/015-012/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/25
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/30
Minor storm           25/25/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01