:Product: 0409RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Apr 09 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. A CME from beyond the SW
limb was first observed on SOHO/LASCO imagery at 09/1026Z. This CME
appears to be back-sided and is not expected to be geoeffective. The
visible disk remains spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active conditions. Solar
wind velocities, observed on the ACE satellite, remained at elevated
levels due to the continued high speed stream.  Velocities ranged
from 635 km/sec to 778 km/sec during the past 24 hours, while the
IMF Bz fluctuated between 4.2 nT to -3.6 nT. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels at
mid-latitudes and isolated minor to major storm conditions at high
latitudes for day one (10 April), due to persistent effects from the
high speed stream.  Conditions should return to quiet to unsettled
levels for day two (11 April) as the influence of the high speed
stream is expected to wane. Conditions should be predominantly quiet
on day three (12 April).
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Apr 068
Predicted   10 Apr-12 Apr  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        09 Apr 072
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  010/010-007/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/15
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01