:Product: 0416RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Apr 16 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 990 (N27W03)
produced a low level B-class flare at 0634Z. This region has decayed
to spotless plage.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with an isolated
active period between 0600 - 0900Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Apr 070
Predicted   17 Apr-19 Apr  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        16 Apr 072
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr  005/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01