:Product: 0502RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 May 02 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  Wind speed
measured at the ACE spacecraft reached a maximum of 517 km/s at
02/0719Z and Bz ranged between +/- 8 nT.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the summary period
(03 - 05 May) due to a coronal hole high speed stream.  There is a
slight chance for minor storm conditions at middle latitudes and
major storm levels at high latitudes during the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 May-05 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 May 068
Predicted   03 May-05 May  068/068/068
90 Day Mean        02 May 071
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May  010/015-010/015-008/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10