:Product: 0504RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 May 04 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  New Region 993 (S29E27)
emerged on the disk during the period as a small, simple Bxo Beta
group.  The region has a new cycle magnetic configuration and
appears to be growing slowly.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  Solar wind
velocities, as measured at the ACE satellite, remain elevated at
about 550 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for
isolated active periods all three days of the forecast period (05-07
May) due to the high-speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 May-07 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 May 068
Predicted   05 May-07 May  068/068/068
90 Day Mean        04 May 071
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May  009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May  008/008-008/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05