:Product: 0506RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 May 06 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares occurred and
the visible disk was spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominately at quiet to unsettled levels
with isolated active periods observed between 06/0000-0900Z.  Solar
wind velocities, as measured at the ACE satellite, decreased to
about 550 km/s beginning at about 06/0800Z from an earlier high of
approximately 650 km/s at 05/2300Z.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for
isolated active periods on day 1 (07 May) due to the high speed
stream.  By days 2 and 3 (08 and 09 May), geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be mostly quiet as the high speed stream abates.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 May 067
Predicted   07 May-09 May  068/068/068
90 Day Mean        06 May 071
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  008/008-005/005-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/10/10
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01