:Product: 0512RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 May 12 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  There have been several
low-level flares observed during the period.  The most probable
source is an active region located just behind the east limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.  There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class event from
the new active region making its way onto the solar disk from behind
the east limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels.  The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions on day one (13 May)
of the period due to the influence of a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream.  Predominately quiet levels are expected to return for
days two and three (14-15 May).
III.  Event Probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 May 068
Predicted   13 May-15 May  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        12 May 071
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/11/01