:Product: 0513RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 May 13 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  The active region around
the east limb has continued to produce low-level flares during the
past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.  There is a chance for B-class flares and a slight chance for
an isolated C-class event from the approaching new region behind the
east limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately at quiet conditions for the next three
day period (14-16 May).
III.  Event Probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 May 068
Predicted   14 May-16 May  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        13 May 071
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01