:Product: 0514RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 May 14 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  The active region
that has been producing low-level flares from behind the southeast
limb made its transit onto the visible solar disk.  This region is
currently spotless and has not produced any events.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet conditions for the forecast period of 15-17
May.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 May 069
Predicted   15 May-17 May  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        14 May 071
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01