:Product: 0519RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 May 19 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Regions 994 (S12W36) and
996 (N09E18) have not produced any flare activity this period.  Both
regions have a Bxo Beta magnetic classification.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
observations from the Ace Spacecraft have shown a steady increase in
velocity from around 340 km/s to 400 km/s in the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with minor storm conditions at
high latitudes on day one (20 May). Activity is expected due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on days two and three ( 21 - 22 May).
III.  Event Probabilities 20 May-22 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 May 069
Predicted   20 May-22 May  072/072/072
90 Day Mean        19 May 071
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May  020/030-010/015-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/05
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/00
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/15/10
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01