:Product: 0617RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Jun 17 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 999 (S02E46) has
shown little change from yesterday and remains a single spot alpha
magnetic classification.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions.  Solar wind
velocities, as measured at the ACE satellite, averaged around 680
km/s with a peak speed of 784 km/s at 17/0248 UTC.  The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled levels with a chance
for isolated active conditions for the next three days (18-20 June).
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jun 066
Predicted   18 Jun-20 Jun  067/067/067
90 Day Mean        17 Jun 070
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  010/012-010/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01