:Product: 0711RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Jul 11 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares were observed
in the past 24 hours.  The visible solar disk remains spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.  Solar wind signatures
observed at ACE are indicating the onset of a high speed stream from
a recurrent coronal hole.  The velocity has showed a steady increase
from around 340 to 450 km/s, and the IMF Bz component has ranged
from +/- 7 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for
isolated minor storm conditions at high latitudes for 13 July. 
Predominately unsettled conditions are expected for 14-15 July as
the high speed stream continues to be geoeffective.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jul 066
Predicted   12 Jul-14 Jul  066/066/066
90 Day Mean        11 Jul 067
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul  004/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul  015/020-012/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01