:Product: 0712RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Jul 12 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  The visible solar disk
remains spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm conditions. 
The ACE solar wind signatures indicate the increase in activity is
due to a coronal hole high speed stream.  Solar wind velocity 
increased steadily through the last 24 hour period with speeds
averaging around 615 km/s at report time.  The IMF Bz also
fluctuated from -10 nT to +13 nT during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly at unsettled levels with isolated
periods of active conditions for 13-14 July.  Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for 15 July.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jul 065
Predicted   13 Jul-15 Jul  066/066/066
90 Day Mean        12 Jul 067
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul  018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  012/015-010/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01