:Product: 0713RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Jul 13 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains
spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Solar wind
velocities measured at the ACE Spacecraft ranged from approximately
650 - 700 km/s. This increase is in response to a favorably
positioned coronal hole.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with isolated active periods on days
one and two (14-15 July). The activity is in response to a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on day three (16 July) as the effects of the coronal hole
decrease.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jul 065
Predicted   14 Jul-16 Jul  066/066/066
90 Day Mean        13 Jul 067
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul  016/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  010/010-008/010-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/05
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01