:Product: 0721RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Jul 21 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. Region 1000 (S12W18) is spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active
period from 0900-1200Z. The solar wind data at ACE indicated the
passage of a solar sector boundary. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled on day one (22 July), unsettled to
active on day two (23 July), and mostly unsettled on day three (24
July). The increase in activity is forecast due to the expected
effects of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jul 066
Predicted   22 Jul-24 Jul  066/066/066
90 Day Mean        21 Jul 067
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul  010/010-015/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/20
Minor storm           05/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/50/25
Minor storm           10/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01