:Product: 0722RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Jul 22 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during 
the past 24 hours. Region 1000 (S12W31) is spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The solar wind data at
ACE indicated the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar
wind velocity increased significantly at about 1300Z to values
ranging from 580-630 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active during day one (23 July), mostly
unsettled on day two (24 July), and quiet on day three (25 July).
The increase in activity is expected due to effects from the
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jul 066
Predicted   23 Jul-25 Jul  066/066/066
90 Day Mean        22 Jul 067
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul  015/015-010/010-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/25/10
Minor storm           20/10/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01