:Product: 0816RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Aug 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (17-19 August).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for
the next three days (17-19 August). The increase is in response to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Aug 066
Predicted   17 Aug-19 Aug  066/066/066
90 Day Mean        16 Aug 066
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug  007/008-010/010-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/35
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/50/55
Minor storm           10/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/10