:Product: 0904RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Sep 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. The solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was initially quiet to unsettled, but activity
increased to minor to major storm levels from 0000-0600Z. Active
levels prevailed from 0600-1500Z, after which conditions decreased
to unsettled levels. The activity was driven by a prolonged period
of southward Bz (about -10 nT) occurring together with elevated
solar wind speeds. Solar wind velocity continued to rise during the
past 24 hours with day-end values near 600 km/s. The solar wind
signatures are generally consistent with a high speed stream from a
coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the first day (05 September)
as the high speed wind stream is expected to continue. Conditions
should gradually decline to predominantly unsettled for the second
day (06 September) and quiet to unsettled for the third day (07
September).
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Sep 066
Predicted   05 Sep-07 Sep  066/066/066
90 Day Mean        04 Sep 066
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep  020/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep  015/020-010/015-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/25/15
Minor storm           25/15/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/30/20
Minor storm           30/20/10
Major-severe storm    15/10/05