:Product: 0905RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Sep 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet during the past 24
hours, with the exception of an unsettled period from 0300-0600Z.
Solar wind observations at ACE show a generally declining trend in
the solar wind velocity with values around 500 km/s at the end of
the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days (06-07
September). Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels for the
third day (08 September).
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Sep 065
Predicted   06 Sep-08 Sep  066/066/066
90 Day Mean        05 Sep 066
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep  017/033
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep  007/010-005/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01