:Product: 0913RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Sep 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours and the visible solar disk remains
spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels for 14
September due to the approach of a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream.  Predominately unsettled to active conditions, with isolated
major storming at high latitudes, are expected for 15 September, 
Quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast for 16 September.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Sep 066
Predicted   14 Sep-16 Sep  066/066/066
90 Day Mean        13 Sep 066
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep  000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep  002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep  010/015-015/020-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/20
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/40/25
Minor storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01