:Product: 0915RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Sep 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. The visible disk remained spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominately unsettled to active. An
isolated quiet period was observed at 15/0000Z. The increase in
activity is in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole high
speed stream. Solar wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft
indicated an increase from approximately 390 km/s to 610 km/s during
the forecast period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with isolated active
conditions on day one (16 September). Predominately quiet with
isolated unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three
(17-18 September) as the coronal hole effects subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Sep 068
Predicted   16 Sep-18 Sep  066/066/066
90 Day Mean        15 Sep 066
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  007/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01