:Product: 0916RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Sep 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. The visible disk remained spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet to unsettled. An
isolated active period was observed between 16/0300-0600Z. Solar wind speed measured at the ACE Spacecraft showed a gradual decrease from approximately 610 km/s to 530 km/s during the forecast period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet with isolated unsettled
conditions for the next three days (17-19) September.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Sep 069
Predicted   17 Sep-19 Sep  066/066/066
90 Day Mean        16 Sep 066
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep  011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01