:Product: 0917RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Sep 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. The visible disk remained spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet. An isolated unsettled
period was observed between 17/0300-0600Z. Solar wind speed measured
at the ACE spacecraft showed a gradual decrease from approximately
530 km/s to 410 km/s during the forecast period. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet with isolated unsettled
conditions for the next three days (18-20 September).
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Sep 067
Predicted   18 Sep-20 Sep  066/066/066
90 Day Mean        17 Sep 066
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01