:Product: 0930RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Sep 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.  Solar wind speed values
measured by the ACE spacecraft began the period at approximately 350
km/s.  At around 1130Z on 30 September a Co-rotating Interaction
Region (CIR) was observed at ACE.  In association with the CIR wind
speeds gradually increased to end the period at about 500 km/s with
interplanetary magnetic field Bz values ranging between +/- 7 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels with a chance for 
major storm periods at high latitudes for day one (01 October) of
the forecast period.  The increase in activity is due to a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective
position.  The coronal hole is expected to remain geoeffective days
two and three (02 and 03 October) of the forecast period.  However,
activity should decrease to quiet to unsettled levels with a chance
for isolated active levels at high latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Sep 066
Predicted   01 Oct-03 Oct  066/066/066
90 Day Mean        30 Sep 066
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct  020/025-008/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/10/10
Minor storm           25/05/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/20/15
Minor storm           30/15/10
Major-severe storm    15/05/01