:Product: 1001RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Oct 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  Solar wind
speed measured at the ACE spacecraft continued to rise through the
last 24 hours as the coronal hole high speed stream approaches. 
Speeds are averaging around 600 km/s with the interplanetary
magnetic field Bz ranging between +/- 7 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor
storm levels at mid latitudes, and isolated major storm periods at
high latitudes for 02 October.  Activity is expected due to the
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.  Mostly unsettled
conditions are expected for 03 - 04 October as the high speed stream
continues to be geoeffective.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Oct 066
Predicted   02 Oct-04 Oct  066/066/066
90 Day Mean        01 Oct 066
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct  007/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct  020/025-008/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/10/10
Minor storm           25/05/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/20/15
Minor storm           30/10/10
Major-severe storm    15/05/01