:Product: 1004RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Oct 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  New Region 1003 (S23E28)
was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
minor storm conditions observed for the period of 04/0600Z. 
Although velocities reflect a gradual decrease, to around 570 km/s,
solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft indicate a continued
influence from the high speed solar wind stream.  The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 05 October.  Mostly
quiet conditions should return for 06-07 October as the high speed
solar wind stream subsides.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Oct 067
Predicted   05 Oct-07 Oct  066/066/066
90 Day Mean        04 Oct 066
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct  007/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01