:Product: 1011RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Oct 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  A new-cycle sunspot was
numbered today as Region 1005 (N26E42).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm conditions, 
Activity was due to a favorably positioned coronal hole high speed
stream.  Solar wind speeds increased from around 330 to 530 km/s
during the period.  The Bz was anywhere from -13 nT to -14 nT while
the Bt reached fluctuations of +14 nT to +15 nT for the period
between 11/0600Z - 11/1800Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor
storm levels at high latitudes for 12 October.  Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for 13 October.  Predominately quiet levels
are expected to return for 14 October as the coronal hole effects
subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Oct 071
Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct  071/072/072
90 Day Mean        11 Oct 067
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct  020/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  015/020-005/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/05/05
Minor storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/15/10
Minor storm           20/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01