:Product: 1012RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Oct 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 1005 (N27E28) is a
beta magnetic configuration and has six spots visible in white
light.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions.  Solar wind
speed as observed by ACE indicate the continued influence of the
coronal hole high speed stream.  Velocities average well above 500
km/s.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 13-14 October. 
Mostly quiet conditions are expected for 15 October.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Oct 070
Predicted   13 Oct-15 Oct  072/072/073
90 Day Mean        12 Oct 067
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct  020/037
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  007/010-005/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01