:Product: 1013RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 1005 (N26E13) was
stable and quiet with no flares observed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  Solar wind
velocity, as measured at the ACE satellite, continued at elevated
levels averaging about 500 km/s, and indicated the continued
influence of the coronal hole high speed stream.  The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 14 October.  Mostly
quiet conditions are expected for 15 - 16 October.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Oct 071
Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct  072/073/075
90 Day Mean        13 Oct 067
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  005/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01