:Product: 1016RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Oct 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low with no flares observed. 
Region 1005 (N26W29) was quiet and stable during the period.  Region
1006 (S27W63) was numbered today and is an alpha magnetic
configuration.  This region exhibits New Cycle 24 magnetic polarity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet all three days of the forecast period
(17 - 19 October).
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Oct 072
Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct  072/072/071
90 Day Mean        16 Oct 067
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01