:Product: 1104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Nov 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1007 (N36W52) produced a
C1.0 flare at 0330Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 1007 has a chance of producing another C-class
flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (05-06 November).
Unsettled to active conditions are expected on day three (07
November) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed solar wind
stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Nov 068
Predicted   05 Nov-07 Nov  069/069/069
90 Day Mean        04 Nov 067
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  005/005-005/008-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/50
Minor storm           01/01/35
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor storm           01/01/50
Major-severe storm    01/01/20