:Product: 1105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Nov 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. An isolated low-level
B-class flare occurred. Region 1007 (N35W72) continued to gradually
decay as it approached the west limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high during most of
the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (06 November). Activity is
expected to increase to active to major storm levels on day 2 (07
November) due to a recurrent hole high-speed stream. Activity is
expected to decrease to unsettled to active levels on day 3 (08
November) as coronal hole effects subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Nov 068
Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov  068/069/070
90 Day Mean        05 Nov 067
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov  001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  005/005-020/030-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/50/30
Minor storm           01/35/10
Major-severe storm    01/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/25/35
Minor storm           01/50/15
Major-severe storm    01/20/05