:Product: 1106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Nov 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 1007 (N35W84) was
stable as it approached the west limb. No new active regions were
numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was high during most of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to range from active to minor storm levels with a chance
for major storm levels at high latitudes on day 1 (07 November) due
to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected
to decrease to unsettled to active levels on day 2 (08 November). A
further decrease to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day 3
(09 November) as coronal hole effects subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Nov 069
Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov  069/070/070
90 Day Mean        06 Nov 067
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  000/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov  001/001
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  020/030-010/015-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/30/10
Minor storm           35/10/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/35/15
Minor storm           50/15/05
Major-severe storm    20/05/01