:Product: 1107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Nov 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk was spotless during most of the period. Region 1007
(N35W97) was stable as it crossed the west limb early in the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. A
recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) commenced early in
the period. Solar wind velocities gradually increased from 282 to
511 km/sec during the period. IMF changes associated with the CH HSS
included increased Bt (peak 14 nT at 07/1202Z) and intermittent
periods of southward Bz (minimum -10 nT at 07/2057Z).
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to range from quiet to active levels on day 1 (08 November)
as the CH HSS continues. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet
to unsettled levels during the remainder of the period (09 - 10
November) as the CH HSS subsides.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Nov 068
Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov  068/068/068
90 Day Mean        07 Nov 067
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  010/015-007/010-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/05
Minor storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/15/10
Minor storm           20/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01