:Product: 1203RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Dec 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. The solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (04-06 December).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
Conditions were initially completely undisturbed, but around 0600Z a
gradual increase in solar wind speed and magnetic field intensity
began. In response geomagnetic activity increased slightly to quiet
to unsettled levels through the remainder of the day. The solar wind
signatures appear to be consistent with the onset of a high speed
solar wind stream from a coronal hole.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled for the next three days
(04-06 December) with a chance for isolated active periods. The
enhanced activity is expected due to the high speed solar wind
stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Dec 069
Predicted   04 Dec-06 Dec  069/069/069
90 Day Mean        03 Dec 068
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec  000/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec  010/010-010/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05