:Product: 1212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Dec 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 1009 (S25W90)
produced a few A-class flares as it approached the west limb. A
filament centered at about N50W15 erupted between 0600-0800Z which
led to a slow CME off the northwest limb as observed by the SOHO C2
coronagraph beginning at 0930Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (13-15 December).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods
during the next 24 hours (13 December) as a high speed stream is
expected to rotate into geoeffective position. Activity is expected
to be generally quiet for the second and third days (14-15
December). The CME mentioned in Part IA is not expected to be
geoeffective.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Dec 071
Predicted   13 Dec-15 Dec  070/070/068
90 Day Mean        12 Dec 068
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec  010/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/15/05
Minor storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01