:Product: 1222RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2008 Dec 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2008
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  The visible disk remained
spotless.  Please note: the observed Penticton 10.7 cm flux for 21
December was 068.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  At about 22/1600Z, ACE
measured increases in temperature, density and wind velocity, all
indicative of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.  During this period, solar
wind speed increased to near 400 km/s while the Bz component of the
IMF varied north and south about +/- 10 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
forecasted to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on
23 December.  On 24 - 25 December, effects from the coronal hole are
expected to wane, and as a result, the geomagnetic field will be
mostly quiet.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Dec 068
Predicted   23 Dec-25 Dec  068/068/068
90 Day Mean        22 Dec 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec  010/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01