:Product: 0103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Jan 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flare activity
occurred. The visible disk was spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active
levels occurred during 03/1000 - 1200Z. ACE solar wind measurements
indicated Earth remained within a recurrent coronal hole high-speed
stream. A gradual increase in solar wind velocities occurred during
most of the period with a peak of 568 km/sec detected at 03/1506Z.
IMF Bz varied from +05 nT to -07 nT with a period of sustained
southward Bz around 03/0700 - 1000Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the 3-day period (04 -
06 January) as the coronal hole high-speed stream gradually wanes.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jan 070
Predicted   04 Jan-06 Jan  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        03 Jan 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/01/01
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/01/01
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01