:Product: 0114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Jan 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity continued very low. Region 1010 (N18W33)
decayed to a now spotless plage. The days most noteworthy event
occurred near 1500 UTC when remnants of a high latitude filament
were seen to lift from the disk in EIT, spawning a CME from East
Limb. However, magnetic field data show no obvious enhancement of
the fields in this area. Little else of interest occurred.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity will persist at very
low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to slightly unsettled. A Sudden
Impulse, possibly related to a faint CME on January 9, measured 13
nt at Boulder. It occurred at 0121 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jan 071
Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        14 Jan 068
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01