:Product: 0116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Jan 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. The visible disk remained spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 17-18 January. Conditions should increase to
quiet to unsettled late on 18 January and last through 19 January,
as a recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position.
During this interval, isolated active conditions are possible at
high latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jan 071
Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        16 Jan 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  005/005-005/005-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                01/01/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01