:Product: 0117RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Jan 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. The visible disk remained spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (18-20
January). Isolated active periods are possible at high latitudes
during this period, as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream
becomes geoeffective late on 18 January. Quiet conditions should
return late on 20 January.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jan 072
Predicted   18 Jan-20 Jan  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        17 Jan 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan  005/005-008/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                01/10/05
Minor storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/20/10
Minor storm           01/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01