:Product: 0119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Jan 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity remained very low. Ephemeral Region 1011
(S12W25) emerged early in the period and was spotless by days end.
It sported a few penumbraless spots at its peak and old Cycle 23
magnetic polarity. Little else of significance occurred or was
noted.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to stay
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A recurrent high-speed
solar wind stream brought short-lived active conditions to all
latitudes early in the day. The disturbance quickly waned, and quiet
conditions prevailed by the end of the interval.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet throughout the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jan 071
Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        19 Jan 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01